CROSS
In the 1st Phase of the CoSi Scenario Framework we build upon the CROSS structure (CooRdination Of Scenarios for SWEET) developed for comparing and harmonizing the model activities of the first SWEET consortia. The CROSS activities have been transferred and included into CoSi. Withint the scenario framework the CROSS scenarios cover the overarching long term energy system development in relation to long term developments on a national level (i.e. similar to the ‘Energy Perspectives’ or the first CROSS scenario comparisons in scope and scale). So far this assessment is mostly focused on technical oriented energy (system) models. In the long run, CoSi aims to extended this assessment by accounting for socio-economic dimensions and aspects neglected so far.
In general, the CROSS-scenario runs are conducted in a three-stage process:
- A set of guiding questions is defined in a transdisciplinary exchange process with stakeholders and scientists coordinated by WP2 and WP3.
- Based on the guiding questions a set of numerical scenario datasets is developed that can be run by energy (system) models. This process is coordinated by WP1 and lead by Ariana Marcucci and data related aspects are organized via CROSS Hub.
- Once the model runs are finalized, the results are gathered and reviewed to provide answers for the guiding questions and disseminate them via the CoSi communication channels. Furthermore, the numerical inputs and outputs are provided via CROSS Hub for follow-up investigations and research in Deep Dives.
Beside the scenario coordination CROSS is also the digital exchange platform for the associated numerical data. The whole scenario structure of CROSS and the Deep Dives will be supported by a data architecture that ensures a consistent flow of numerical data between the phases and participating teams. The main internal data flow will go from the CROSS assessment (the phase 1 national results) to the Deep Dive analyses (the phase 2 topical assessments). All result data will be gathered and provided for the communication activities. The CROSS Hub is the central platform for this data exchange and storage. The exchange itself is governed by data contracts which can also be utilized for bilateral exchange without the CROSS interface.
CROSS 2025
CROSS 2025 was initiated in early 2025 with a stakeholder exchange with several Swiss Federal Offices to identify relevant questions with regard to the long-term Swiss energy development. Based on this feedback a set of three guiding questions was developed, cross checked with our 3×3 Board and presented at the CoSi Scenario Workshop in May 2025:
- How does the Swiss energy system develop under currently given policies and targets?
i.e. the wish for a Reference Scenario (with potential sensitivities) - Does a faster electrification of mobility help the transition towards renewables?
i.e. impact of a faster or slower development of important system trends for infrastructure needs, energy demand, and system financing - What are the consequences of delayed availability of critical key infrastructures?
i.e. availability of specific technologies (e.g. outside of the Swiss scope) that reshape the energy transition significantly (path dependencies)
Based on those guiding question WP1 under the lead of Adriana Marcucci developed a set of numerical scenarios along three main decision dimensions: the presence of renewable and import targets beside the general net-zero target in 2050, the speed of electrification of mobility (i.e. the share of electric vehicles), and the availability of carbon abatement options outside of Switzerland.
Based on this scenario set the modeling teams conducted simulation runs in fall and winter 2025. The first result presentation is conducted at the CROSS workshop in March 2026.
The final dissemination of results and answers to the three guiding question will be provided in spring/summer 2026.
Q&A
How can I participate in CROSS?
In general, the CROSS runs will be prepared via CoSi and communicated via preparatory workshops in which the guiding questions for each run are presented and discussed. Following a call for participation will be issued. If you want to ensure you remain in the loop for upcoming CROSS activities please contact Adriana Marcucci (adriana.marcucci@esc.ethz.ch)
The CROSS runs for CROSS 2025 are finalized. A next run is scheduled with the next scenario assessment loop starting in 2027. The next call for participation will likely be issued in late 2027 or early 2028.
Who can participate in a CROSS run?
Given that CROSS is (so far) focused on national energy developments and based on comparative energy (system) model scenarios, participating research teams need to have an energy model capable of running the numerical scenarios. Ex-post assessment of CROSS scenario results are part of the Deep Dive phase.
Does CoSi provide resources for participation in a CROSS run?
Unfortunately, CoSi does not have funding for financing specific model runs (or deep dives). We provide the infrastructure for data exchange (via CROSS Hub), overarching scenario questions, and manage and support an overarching communication and outreach strategy.
Can I access the data without participating?
Yes, the CROSS Hub is designed to provide both the input data as well as the scenario results for further research and investigations. The CROSS webpage is also providing additional data and information on cost and technology development assumptions, a policy monitoring, and the SHEDS (Swiss Household Energy Demand Survey) data.